Ten Pitfalls of Confirmation Bias
Biases have been increasingly written about in the last ten years. For example, when you look up cognitive biases on the Amazon website for books, you will find over 1,000 that delve into the subject from various angles. Depending on who you believe, we have documented between 150 and 190 different biases that affect our thinking and reasoning daily. I don’t think all 150–190 are readily identified as significant influences on our daily lives. Still, one that has a distinct and often devastating effect on us is Confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias is a cognitive phenomenon in which individuals search for, interpret, and recall information to confirm their beliefs or hypotheses. It’s a deeply ingrained human tendency that affects our decision-making in many spheres of life. This bias sets the stage for isolationism, prejudice, divisiveness, and even hatred when taken to an extreme.
Here are ten pitfalls of falling prey to confirmation bias:
1. Limitation of Perspective: In my thinking, one of the major pitfalls is the restriction of one’s viewpoint. Instead of objectively assessing all available information, individuals with confirmation bias only see what aligns with their beliefs, making them less adaptable and potentially less informed. All we need to look at is politics today. It has become so divisive that hard lines are often drawn on false or misleading data from those strongly influenced by conformational bias.
2. Poor Decision-Making: By only focusing on evidence that supports our pre-existing beliefs, we are not considering the full spectrum of information. This can lead to poor decision-making, as crucial contrary evidence might be overlooked. We often think that finding supporting data that reinforces our point of view is good; however, if it has not been combined with a thorough understanding of all potential data on the subject, it becomes a roadblock to making effective decisions. Some of these decisions can be catastrophic in the long term.
3. Stagnation of Growth: Continuous learning and self-improvement often require us to challenge our beliefs and perspectives. By succumbing to confirmation bias, we deprive ourselves of the opportunity to grow and evolve. Too many people choose to stop learning because they are comfortable with their status quo, but if this is taken to an extreme, it can damage and derail any growth plans one may come up with.
4. Relationship Strains: Confirmation bias can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts in personal relationships. For instance, if one believes a friend or partner possesses a particular negative trait, one might only notice the instances that confirm this belief, neglecting all the positive counter-examples. Too many marriages have hit the rocks due to this oversight and unwillingness to work through the perceived issues. Work relationships have destroyed companies because the workforce becomes so divided that they can’t reconcile anything to move forward.
5. Increased Polarization: On a societal level, confirmation bias can deepen divides between different groups. People only consuming news and opinions that align with their views can lead to increased polarization and a lack of understanding among various factions. All we need to look at here are issues around gun control, abortion, immigration, and climate change to see confirmation bias in action. There are even ultra-conservative and ultra-liberal news services, podcasts, and magazines that help support the mindsets that are poured in concrete by confirmational bias. Another issue usually not addressed is that most news outlets have a certain amount of confirmational bias around sensationalism to build readership or viewers. Social media influencers cater to a culture of confirmational bias because the followers who subscribe are typically sold on the topic or products they are dispensing. In effect, the community is built around a form of confirmational bias.
6. Overconfidence: Believing that the evidence always supports one’s views can lead to overconfidence. This can be detrimental in areas like investing, where the perceived certainty can lead to significant financial risks. This comes from areas where the one with the bias has built up their expertise to the point that they feel enabled and entrenched in the niche, making them unmoveable. Depending on the field, this can be benign or catastrophic. Overconfidence can also lead to arrogance and pride, often extending into isolation and poor relationships.
7. Resistance to Challenges: Confirmation bias can make individuals resistant to feedback, especially if it challenges their beliefs. This can prevent progress in professional and personal settings and stifle personal growth. I find this a significant factor, especially in research and academic environments where you expect to be the opposite. Too often, when we have a passion for a particular subject, we are swayed by our specific knowledge or tradition regarding the topic to the point that we will not allow anything contrary to be discussed. This is the time to check our attitude.
8. Stunted Innovation: In business and research, confirmation bias can lead to a lack of innovation. If teams only look for results that confirm their hypotheses, they may miss out on breakthroughs from unexpected findings. I have seen this one at work: a company was looking to install software that allowed them to provide the most efficient delivery routes. The decision-making group was sold on their decision because they only looked at offerings that fit their perception of how it should work without looking at how it worked. They invested $20 million only to throw it away after 18 months because it would not fit the regular deliveries they were doing.
9. Misinterpretation of Data: Confirmation bias can be especially dangerous in science and research. Researchers may unconsciously interpret data in a way that confirms their hypotheses, leading to false conclusions and potentially misinforming future work. Sometimes, the interpretation may not be unconsciously determined but manipulated to get the data to confirm a particular view or result. Having a background in statistics and psychology, I know how surveys can be manipulated to prove or disprove anything you want just by how the questions are posed.
10. Lack of Accountability: Confirmation bias can prevent individuals or organizations from taking responsibility when errors or poor outcomes occur. They may only see external factors as the cause, overlooking their potential contributions to the problem. Again, there are plenty of examples of this in today’s business world; look at the number of times the “blame” game comes up in discussion. Rather than stepping back after an issue and asking what worked and what didn’t, many stakeholders will step back and point the finger at blame so they don’t have to take any responsibility for the failure.
Finally, confirmation bias is a universal cognitive shortcoming. Being aware of its pitfalls is the first step towards mitigating its effects. Actively seeking out diverse viewpoints, being open to feedback, and regularly challenging one’s own beliefs can help individuals navigate away from the dangers of this bias.
Our comfort zones are assembled from various forms of confirmation bias. We like to group ourselves with people who think and speak the same way or have the same traditions or rituals that we are accustomed to, so we eventually build a wall to stay in our comfort zone.
However, sometimes, this is a necessity due to other’s conformational biases that tend to focus on the differences between two groups, as is the case in immigration and segregation, which are reinforced by anger, hatred, violence, or disinfranchising of groups.
Ignoring our confirmational biases is a choice, and we have to recognize it as such before we can address the issues and improve society. It starts with our views first, then embracing diversity and inclusion.
